Week 18
In one part
Week 17 was another perfect 4-0, congrats to all subscribers! 32-10 YTD. but much more football to come!
Housekeeping
A few reminders on how things work from now until the Super Bowl:
Week 18’s entire set of best bets are available today (paywall below)
From the Wild Card round to the Super Bowl, we will offer Best Bet picks on every game. On Wild Card and Divisional weekend, picks will get published each game day, given the high level of injury uncertainty.
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Week 18 Weirdness
And so we have reached the final week of the regular season. Outside of week 1, this is usually the strangest set of outcomes. Games are either totally meaningless (or only draft positioning meaningful) to make the playoffs. The weird part comes into play when you have the meaningless benching anyone for injury risks, which happens with teams like the Chiefs for obvious reasons, but also with teams that are no longer in contention. That second group doesn’t want players getting hurt or worsening an existing injury heading into the off-season. This results in a lot of back-ups playing in key roles, in some the case the entire game.
In short, be careful with some of these eliminated teams or ones with nothing to gain by winning, they produce unpredictable results.
SOS
For the rest of the season, we will only include based on games played, remaining games loses meaning with only 1 game to go. If this is your first time reading, our SOS methodology is explained here.
Once we get the playoffs, we will show the entire list for teams that are still alive.
Toughest
RAVENS
PACKERS
FALCONS
BUCCANEERS
TEXANS
Easiest
DOLPHINS
COMMANDERS
VIKINGS
BRONCOS
BILLS
Best Bets
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So all oddities above and our usual models have been taken into consideration. We are taking alternative spreads in all cases that spreads apply, given that the final week usually has more surprises than normal.
RAVENS - 11.5 - The real spread is 20.5 and there is a lot to consider with those 9 points less v. weaker odds. Look, the Ravens are going to win this game, I think all know the joke that Browns are (I say this as a fan of the N.Y. Jets so keep laughing!). However, I can imagine a very plausible 4th quarter lead of 17 or more and the Ravens bench some key players knowing the game is over and they have wrapped up the division.
BUCCANEERS -9.5 - Similar logic here, but closer to the real spread, since Tampa can offered no risk of losing this game and likely keeps everyone in until it's over.
FALCONS - MONEYLINE - The Panthers keep on improving and with the right off-season moves could be a playoff team next year, we are not ready to offer Futures bets on ‘25 yet, more to come, mark your calendar for just after the NFL Draft. In the end, we still think the Falcons win.
BRONCOS - MONEYLINE - This could be the strangest of all, but we are in the gambling business. The Chiefs appear to be benching everyone, although the Broncos have looked weak down the stretch and have another look at the SOS. I still think the Broncos get it done, but I am not liking points here.